Electric and Fuel Cell Trucks 2023-2043

The IDTechEx Electric and Fuel Cell Trucks 2023-2043 report explores the future of the rapidly developing zero-emission truck market, covering battery electric, plug-in hybrid, and hydrogen fuel cell trucks. Within the report we discuss the technical and economic aspects of zero-emission truck deployment and present IDTechEx's granular forecasts for medium and heavy-duty zero-emission truck deployment out to 2043, with focus on the key markets; Europe, the US, and China.

 

Despite the medium and heavy-duty truck fleet representing less than 10% of the global on-road vehicle stock, large diesel truck engines and high average annual mileage mean that the truck sector contributes around 40% of the global transport sector's greenhouse gas emissions. This equates to about 5.1% of all global fossil fuel derived CO2 emission. It is this disproportionate contribution to emissions which makes trucks a target for governments. If the global community is going to meet its targets to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and limit the impact of climate change then a rapid decarbonisation of the truck sector must be a priority. Consequently, the days of the fossil fuel powered combustion engine truck are numbered.

 

Governments around the world, recognising the potentially catastrophic repercussions of unfettered climate change and witnessing the detrimental impact on human health from vehicle exhaust pollutant emissions in urban environments, are taking decisive action, tightening exhaust emission regulation, and plotting timelines to net zero emission. This will, in the coming few decades, drive vehicle manufacturers to zero on-road exhaust emission powertrain solutions. OEMs and suppliers are increasingly committing to this transition.

 

The past 18-months have seen substantial progress in truck electrification. The previous version of this IDTechEx report (Electric Medium & Heavy-duty Trucks 2021-2041) presented primarily prototype vehicles or zero-emission trucks in small series production, today, almost all OEMs either have a battery electric model in series production or are committed to starting production within the next year. Supply chains are maturing, and major tier 1 suppliers are putting substantial resources into parts electrification and shifting focus away from traditional combustion engine powertrains.

 

 

 

 

Key to deployment of battery electric trucks is understanding the daily duty cycle energy demand. The high cost of battery packs means that optimisation which minimises the size of the installed battery, whilst still delivering a full day's operation, is likely to be the most cost-effective solution. Many OEMs are offering consultancy services, working with customers to analyse the daily energy demanded by their operations, to then tailor the vehicle and charging infrastructure to that requirement. Modular battery solutions and a choice of electric motor sizes will help customers acquire the correct vehicle for their application. Working with customers is key to successful BEV truck deployment for these early generation vehicles.

 

Whilst the market for battery electric vehicles is beginning to take-off, the energy density and specific energy of current lithium-ion battery technologies can mean that the range of battery electric trucks is restricted by both the maximum weight of batteries that can be carried by a truck, and the available space for batteries within that vehicle. Fuel cell technologies offer truck OEMs an avenue to greater range, whilst still delivering the crucial reduction in on-road exhaust emissions. Despite the technologies promise, reducing system cost and rolling out sufficient hydrogen refuelling infrastructure to make driving a FCEV workable, will be a challenge. Also essential will be the availability of cheap low-carbon 'green' hydrogen, which analysis in the new IDTechEx report highlights will be vital to FCEVs delivering the environmental credentials on which they are being sold.

 

The installation of electric charging / hydrogen refuelling infrastructure is critical to the deployment of zero-emission trucks. Part of any fleet transition to electric trucks will involve the installation of sufficient charging infrastructure to enable high utilisation of vehicles. For short urban duty-cycles, which do not deplete an electric truck's battery over a day's operation, low power AC depot charging should be enough for most vehicles to recharge the battery overnight. However, some long-haul truck applications entail a daily mileage far in excess of the range that can be delivered by a practical level of installed battery capacity. In these instances, DC fast chargers specifically designed to cater for heavy-duty vehicles will need to be installed both on highways and at points of regular loading/unloading to add considerable energy in less than one hour. The alternative is hydrogen fuel-cell trucks, which will require a network of hydrogen refuelling stations, along with the development of hydrogen generation and transport infrastructure.

 

The report discusses the drivers and barriers to zero-emission truck deployment, including total cost of ownership considerations. It presents analysis of ongoing OEM and supplier development work and their goals for zero-emission truck deployment, with case-study detail about battery electric and fuel cell electric truck projects being undertaken by the major players in the industry. The report contains detailed investigation of key enabling technologies for zero-emission truck deployment such as batteries, motors, fuel cells, charging infrastructure, and hydrogen combustion engines.

 

The IDTechEx Electric and Fuel Cell Trucks 2023-2043 report is designed to help businesses across the truck sector plan for the future in this dynamic market. The report provides 80 forecast lines for battery electric, plug-in hybrid and fuel cell electric trucks, giving a twenty-year outlook for truck sales, battery demand, fuel cell demand, and market value, with separate forecasts for both the medium and heavy-duty truck markets. This report is intended for companies across the automotive value chain including: truck OEMs, parts and systems suppliers, battery and fuel cell manufacturers, electric charging / hydrogen refuelling infrastructure developers, truck fleet operators, government agencies, research organisations, and banks financing zero-emission truck deployment.

All report purchases include up to 30 minutes telephone time with an expert analyst who will help you link key findings in the report to the business issues you're addressing. This needs to be used within three months of purchasing the report.

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