Kfz-Radar 2022-2042

IDTechEx estimates that today over 50% of new vehicles are shipped with radar, making it a key sensor. Start-ups such as Arbe, Metawave and Oculii are achieving new performance heights, while established suppliers such as Continental, Infineon and NXP are going through a key semiconductor transition. As high levels of autonomy and active safety become more common, IDTechEx's forecast show a radar market 10-year CAGR of 14%.

 

 

Over the past 20 years radar has carved out a firm foothold as a primary automotive sensor. When it first appeared in the market it was reserved for luxury vehicles as a gadget. Nowadays it has become synonymous with safety thanks to the critical ADAS features it enables. Moreover, as the automotive industry looks to further automate vehicles, its strengths over other sensor types makes it a primary candidate to dominate the sensor market. IDTechEx found in this report that the automotive radar market is going to grow rapidly and sustainably at 14% CAGR as autonomous technologies take off and achieve widespread penetration.

 

Compared to other automotive sensors, radar can bring some key sensing benefits to a vehicle. Radars operate at cm to mm wavelengths, which makes them very robust against adverse weather such as fog, rain, dust etc. Other strengths include simultaneous measurement of range and velocity, and outstanding performance in direct sunlight. New emission patterns are unlocking further benefits, for example the digital radar being pushed by start-up Uhnder reduces interference. All these benefits are reached while maintaining a very attractive price point for automakers.

 

 

IDTechEx's report finds that 41% of new vehicles shipped around the world come with automatic emergency braking as a standard feature, and an additional ~15% will have it as an option. In the vast majority of cases, automatic emergency braking relies on radar's sensing capabilities. The safety benefits that this feature brings is making it increasingly mandated by safety bodies and will be one of the driving factors in the adoption of radars going forward.

 

 

IDTechEx's research indicates that more than two thirds of new vehicles are available with SAE level 2 autonomous technologies. Level 3 autonomous vehicles have already hit the road in Japan and will be spreading to more markets in 2022. Level 3 autonomous vehicles overwhelmingly utilise radars, with typically one higher performance long distance radar at the front, and four short range radars providing a 360° sensing cocoon around the vehicle. The requirement of having five units per vehicle for level 3 technologies is a huge driving factor seen in the forecasts of this report.

 

Tesla is very much the exception to this rule, working towards level 3 and level 4 autonomous technologies (regulations permitting) while only utilising one radar on their more premium vehicles, and only cameras on their less expensive models. Tesla have been using a dated radar though, and as this report shows, much more advanced options are now available. Given the new performance on offer perhaps Tesla will re-consider radar in the future.

 

The report provides thorough coverage of the radar market supply chain and highlights market share and products from tier 1 radar suppliers including Bosch, Continental, Denso and Hella. Tier 2 transceivers are covered, giving details on different products and suppliers such as Infineon, NXP and STMicroelectronics. These markets are dominated by a small number of players, each with different attitudes towards emerging technologies. In the report IDTechEx has identified which relationships are likely to change and how this will impact the market shares at each level. Given the small number of players dominating, one relationship change can spark large changes in market shares.

 

The radar industry has a fair number of start-ups whose products are gaining traction, with investment pouring in from OEMs, tier 1s and other significant parties. The start-ups have multiple ways to enter the market; some players such as Arbe and Oculii are looking to supply complete radars, while others such as Uhnder, Metawave, Echodyne and Vayyar are focussing on key components.

 

 

Automotive suppliers are currently going through a semiconductor transition which is revolutionising the performance of radar. This report explains the knock-on effects to the packaging and size reduction of radars and how this will be a key enabling factor for further integration into vehicles. The report also explains considerations that should be made when it comes to antenna design, board integration, and materials for antennas, radio-frequency printed circuit boards (RF PCBs) and radomes.

 

Key radar performance trends are identified through the established radar market and 17 players are profiled including 9 primary interviews. Key performance metrics considered include range, field of view and angular resolution. Besides performance trends this report also gives a comprehensive overview of technology trends such as the transition from 24GHz to 77GHz, the emergence of high channel count transceivers and the move from SiGE BiCMOS based transceivers to Si CMOS transceivers.

 

The performance available in radar sensors is growing rapidly. Over the past decade the imaging performance of radars has improved by an order of magnitude. Attributes that previously hinder radar adoption, such as poor resolution are fading, and radar is becoming a key enabling sensor for high levels of autonomy. Start-ups are starting to promise radars with resolution that can compete with LiDAR, all while maintaining long ranges and incredible robustness to adverse weather, poor lighting and interference. LiDAR prices are starting to come down and radar start-ups are starting to creep up the prices of their products, usually justified by the premium performance. While today all players say that both sensors are needed, IDTechEx expects a clash is on the horizon. Why would OEMs use both sensors if they have the same performance? Radar certainly has the head start here, already being well established in the market, and likely to see strong growth in the short term due to the boost to safety that these radars are bringing. Meanwhile, the industry is still waiting for the price reductions promised by LiDAR, and it has not seen widespread adoption yet.

 

 

The automotive industry moves slowly. New vehicles have a typical lifespan of ~15 years, and automakers usually take around 10 years to make significant updates to their models: a long-term view of the industry is essential to predict uptake of new radar technologies.

 

Moreover, our long-term forecasts enable us to reveal the opportunities for radar with the rise of autonomous vehicles. While robotaxis are growing in maturity, they are very much still in the testing phases today. IDTechEx predicts that their emergence will have a profound impact on the automotive market, even causing a peak and decline. However, these important changes are not likely to happen for another 10-20 years. The long-term changes to the automotive market, and the resultant impact that robotaxis will have on the automotive radar market are captured by our 20-year forecasts.

 

 

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